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Stefan Homburg: Serious analyses of figures instead of fact tuning

Source: Report24.news, Vanessa Renner, 08 May 2024

With another article in the series “The better crystal ball”, the GGI initiative gives the lie to the myth that we didn’t know any better: If those in power in 2020 had listened to the early warnings of economist and long-standing political advisor Dr Stefan Homburg, the population would have been spared a great deal of suffering and injustice. But nothing has been learnt from this: in the next crisis, they will once again prefer to rely on the well-known “experts” with a complaisant political attitude instead of critical people like Homburg.

Press release from the GGI initiative

As described in one of the last press releases, there were some government experts who were (quite) wrong in their assessments and often had to revise or adapt their views over time. On the other hand, there were critical people whose assessments have remained virtually unchanged since 2020 and have now been consistently confirmed. In a sensible world, those who ended up being right would be consulted in the future. Under the heading “The better crystal ball”, we give them the stage they deserve. One of them was Stefan Homburg, who said essentially the same thing in April 2020 as he does today.

Aid money and profiteers

The economist, long-standing political advisor and Professor of Public Finance at the University of Hanover Stefan Homburg made his first critical public appearance in April 2020. In an interview with Rundblick Niedersachsen and subsequently in a guest article in Die Welt, he had already predicted who would benefit most from the sudden injection of state aid money – in addition to manufacturers of medical devices, he also predicted profiteers and subsidy hunters. At the time, he was also shocked at how lightly a large majority of the population accepted the massive encroachment on their property rights and freedoms through lockdowns and far-reaching closures.

Homburg was proved right, possibly in a more drastic way than he had imagined at the time. The rampant coronavirus testing in Germany, and even more extremely in Austria, brought the aforementioned soldiers of fortune onto the scene, such as manufacturers of coronavirus tests, surgical and FFP2 masks or test centre operators and evaluation laboratories.

The example of Sweden

In other early interviews, Homburg called for an end to lockdowns and school closures. He quickly realised that Sweden had taken the right path – with caution and care, but without inciting mass panic. He quickly identified the measures as politically motivated. Based on his factual analyses, he interpreted the excessive coronavirus measures as a scientific, media and political failure.

Famous on Twitter

Homburg became known to the general public from May 2020 through his activity on X (formerly Twitter). He analysed available figures on the coronavirus crisis, put them into context and criticised their interpretation by politicians. Among other things, he explained the difference between exponential and logistic growth. In simple terms, exponential means faster and faster growth for all eternity. This was sold to the general public as a given with viruses, but it is wrong. A logistic curve initially rises exponentially, but then falls again at the same rate after reaching a peak. This describes the spread of viruses much more precisely.

He also recognised that the reproduction factor (also known as the R-value) had already fallen below 1 before the first lockdown came into force in Germany. The spread was therefore already in decline. Arguments that the R-value could rise to over 1 without a lockdown were already pure speculation at the time.

Homburg has documented further insights in his book “Corona-Getwitter”.


More crises will come. Politicians would be well advised to put the welfare of the population first – as is intended in a democracy. However, this also means coming to terms with their own failures and doing better in the future.

Above all, however, it means consulting the right experts in the future. It is telling and treacherous that government representatives and experts still refuse to engage in dialogue with the early critics of the measures. Instead, they continue to rely on defamation, even though many of the critical positions have now been accepted. This behaviour can no longer be taken seriously – and the majority of the population now also understands this.


Homburg S. Corona-Getwitter: Chronicle of a scientific, media and political crisis (ed. 1). Weltbuch Verlag, 2022. ISBN: 978-3907347003

Homburg S. Prof. Dr Stefan Homburg. Prof. Dr Stefan Homburg, 2024. online: https://tinyurl.com/2hb34kac

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